The fact of the matter is that we live in a world ruled by probability rather than clockwork. Your friend is just like the racetrack gambler who has developed a good feeling for horseflesh and the million other variables that go into a horse race.
For the most part I agree with you. Successful trading has a lot to do with discipline, waiting until the odds are in your favor, much like poker, then applying trading rules, limiting losses, etc. But the idea of an efficient market has been blown out of the water by some traders who can consistently beat the odds year after year. My friend was one of those and I know he had an instinctive, intuitive feel for the markets. "Behavioral finance" is the term for this.
