I only say this because I can 100% relate to your thoughts, but you are still "owning her feelings." Listen to yourself ...
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why stir the sh!t?
Although it may in fact stir her sh!t, you don't know that.
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She's been positively friendly lately. Is it a result of last week's IWTMLWYOAW? Or is it just where we are right now?
You are assuming things about her feelings, trying to figure out her mood.
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Do I wait for it to get a bit nasty before bringing it up again, or is that just being reactive to her mood?
Yes.
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Are these periods of calm necessary for her to get to a point of trust/love/affection? Or are they just periods of calm?
Again, trying to figure out her mood.
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Or, somewhat horrible to think about, are they calmness, calculated to pacify me when she knows I'm wanting to push my issues?
And again ...
Remember, the whole point of this is not about what she wants, it is about what you want. I know you have history, that what you think she is thinking may be correct. But it is time to forget about the history and move forward. You don't particularly like that history (or at least parts of it), so why hang on to it. Dump it, do what you need to do to make yourself happy. Be a little bit selfish, take what is your due.
JMHO ... and note that I don't take my own advice
Chrome
"Recollect me darlin, raise me to your lips, two undernourished egos, four rotating hips"