Alright, this is where I kick in with an observation.
AT LEAST, she didn't validate you about never getting together again. I reread your post to make sure and I didn't pick anything up that made me think she AGREED w/ you.
I think this is a perfect time to truly back off and give her some space b/c her seeming sad, being more distant at the fair, etc. makes me think that she had something on her mind. Maybe not your R, but something getting in the way. But, maybe, just maybe, she is wrestling w/ something regarding the two of you.
Anyway, you told her you were going to back off. It's time to show her you are man of your word and show some consistency. Drop the rope, but it's alright to keep some hope if you choose.
Welcome to Purgatory, my friend. I'll give you the tour as soon as I pry this pitchfork out of my a$$!