Poor HD . I got frustrated for you reading your post.
I have to say that I don't think either of your theories is quite right. I think your W feels like she has to be in a very, very safe place before she can relax sexually. However, I don't think you should let this fact alter your behavior. You shouldn't try to make her feel super-safe in order to get her to feel sexual. She has to figure out how to be brave enough to allow herself to be sexual even if she doesn't feel completely emotionally "safe".
Everybody has the need to feel somewhat emotionally "safe" in order to express their sexuality. Some of us are capable of a higher level of risk-taking in this area. For instance, I could go to a biker bar to get laid on my birthday, but this behavior would almost certainly require a certain amount of alcohol and false bravado. I wouldn't be afraid of getting in a physically dangerous situation (though maybe I should be). I would be afraid of getting myself in an emotionally dangerous situation.
For some reason, your wife regards having sex with you as being as emotionally dangerous for her as "looking for Mr.Goodbar" would be for me, so she chickens out at the last minute even though she's tempted. Unless you're way more scary in person than you come across on this board, I can't imagine that you've done anything that should have put the average woman in this state. If she values your relationship enough, she is going to have to figure out how to deal with her not exactly irrational but certainly overblown fears of sex/intimacy on her own. In fact, you may be exacerbating the problem by allowing her to think that there is a "safe" celibate space that she can stay in. You have to make it clear to her that there are no completely safe choices she can make. Everyone is vulnerable to emotional pain whether they experience it by pursuing intimacy or by avoiding it.
"Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?" - Mary Oliver