There are no guarantees for sure. You make the best decision possible with the information you have about someone now and what you know about their past. As the saying goes past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. No one can predict the future and what life will throw you. None of us probably would have thought we would end up here when we first got married, I sure didnt.
At the end of the day the people who made it 30 plus years both made the same choice and were willing to work through the difficult times.