Gerda's vote is always to go with kindness and love, even if it doesn't "work." I have done both and nothing works and sometimes something I didn't do or think I wouldn't do works. You must GAL but with these birthdays and such, you can't strategize too much or you'll go crazy. I would totally send a simple not-lovey-dovey Happy Birthday note. Expect nothing but give that if you want!
I believe I will see the bounty of the Lord in the land of the living. Wait for the Lord with courage. Be stouthearted, and wait for the Lord.