No one here can read your W's mind. You know her better than any of us so I think it's safe to assume that if anyone could predict what she'll do, it's you.
I am very analytical as well. I will obsess and analyze things until I completely burn out. I want answers and I want them now. My mind NEEDS to make sense of things. It's my OCD that compels me to keep digging.
I'm slowly learning that it's not possible to mind read. If I or anyone else here were able to read minds, we would all be reconciling with our WAS, no?
You are overcome with emotion right now. You are hurting. You want the pain to stop so you are looking for things you can say/do/expect/guess that will make you feel better. It doesn't exist.
There are ZERO shortcuts, my friend. Surrender to the fact that you will not know all the why's/how's/when's unless W is willing to tell you. And that's assuming she'll be honest with you.
You're going to have to dig deep to find the strength to take the focus off of your W and place it solely on you and S.
If you can take the focus off W, you dramatically increase the chances of this thing working out for you.
You gotta let her go before she'll ever want to come back.