I admire the candidness in your recent posts. I agree with Wonka and how he pointed out you should ditch the word "manipulation" from thinking. I can see why, given what has happened in your relationship, that you are extra cautious in your interactions with your XW, but I also think it probably makes you act a bit unnaturally as well. Perhaps interactions with the XW seem so weighted is because you are fixated on what it means for the long run? I know I struggle with this kind of thinking. You don't need to decide right away what it means and take your time figuring out what YOU want with the XW. Until then, maybe you can adjust your thinking to more short-term rather than long term and remind yourself that a positive or negative interaction with the XW will not determine the course of your relationship because you have not decided yet what course you would like to be on.
As for your New Friend, I'm glad that after you mentioned your fear about being blown off by her, you balanced it out with a rational thought (ie maybe she's been less accessible because she's in the middle of writing 3 huge papers). I think doing this is a good practice when you are feeling insecure to keep you grounded!