The calendar is a good way to map out what works and what doesn't.
That being said, you need to take your focus off her and put it on yourself. That doesn't mean being completely selfish and rude.
It means, she has made herself clear. You can be willing to listen if she wants to talk. it's really easy for the new you to fall back into old patterns if you don't focus and put energy into it.
Yes, you are overanalyzing it. It took me along time to stop doing that and I had to employ some behavioral modification techniques to get it under control (ie: thick rubberband that I would snap on my wrist).
Looking for every little sign will make you crazy.