I would say there is a pattern of EA, PA, and EA to a degree.
Most affairs that I have seen die a slow ugly death, they don't head hard and fast after a bed-hopping.
My wife was in a PA over long distance and it ran as an EA for about six months before she finally ended contact with him... it fizzled out.
What you want to look for Z is a pattern of SLOWING contact.
If it was daily then weekly, then gradually shifted into a couple times a month then yes, it would appear to be dying out... as an EA... but this sort of analysis requires a LOT of DATA which is VERY HARD to get a HOLD of...
How much INTEL do you have on his activities? If you don't have that much, then you are basing conclusions on imperfect information.
I really think its best to just put him all in and start packing to show him you mean business... you don't have to walk out the same night... you can take three weeks to pack it all up.
