I'd say stop the mathematical musings which serve only to soothe you with the illusion of being able to predict that which is not predictable. What other purpose does it serve? Can you see the downside?
For what it's worth, I gave my marriage a 10% chance of surviving as of 28 months ago and then about 25% 18 months ago. Where I got this "empirically based data," is a mystery to me, although at the time I pretended there was science to it.
Here I am. While I feel lucky and fortunate, I don't feel I won the lottery. This isn't about numbers and though it's important to be realistic when it comes to planning our lives...too much "planning" and not enough living is what strikes me.
Also I get the impression you are in your head way too much & Not enough in your heart. Does that comment make any sense to you? While it's protective, it may also bring about the very thing you fear; i.e., disconnections from those you love. We all do this to some extent. Some people fear losing their partner so much that they smother them and then, they lose them.
If you let your fears grow too much, they CAUSE the very thing you so wanted to avoid. And as a woman, just seeing those calculations was a turn off. I'm sorry if that hurts your feelings, but I sense you need to know this. Do you speak to her like this? Giving your marriage "mathematical analysis"? It sure isn't passionate or romantic my friend.
Just a thought... (( j ))
M: 57 H: 60 M: 35 yrs S30,D28,D19 H off to Alaska 2006 Recon 7/07- 8/08 *2016* X = "ALASKA 2.0" GROUND HOG DAY I File D 10/16 OW DIV 2/26/2018 X marries OW 5/2016