Because she's stressing about this weekend. She's got people she can hurt on either side. That statement would RELIEVE her pressure and you would be the one pushing the release valve...
Remember, you said that she is trying to back out of the situation with OM. Why do you think that? Because you are doing well here.
Definitely keep the kids this weekend. My play would be to tell her...."If you are committed to this event, then you should go...I'll would love to take the kids this weekend."
And you know what? She may decide "My H is the one not bothering me about this....screw it. I'm not going." Or she may decide to go but that's because you were so wonderful about it and he was applying pressure. If you had to go somewhere because you were pressured, how much fun would you have?
I see this as an opportunity to really make that white knight armour shine.
And aliveandkicking is right....this is not the end all be all.