I'd send an e-mail saying when you're about and just see what happens. If he does invite you to a birthday do, definitely go, and even better with a wingwoman. If not, there'll be the end of the festival too. It seems to me like you guys have a good friendship going- I love that!
I can't believe lyricafest has come round again so quickly- I can remember when you went last year. Doesn't time fly (and how English am I ending a thought with that!)