Rob, Going to a school play is probably a good idea right now - sit by her, enjoy a good time.
Painting toe nails is not a good idea - I've never heard of a woman asking a man to help paint toe nails - I know I've tried to help my D8, and I just do a horrible job, and she knows that.
I would take a "rain check" - have something authentic to do, and if you really feel like it is genuine, then have an alternative ready, but make it something public and light - like going to a coffee shop.
I would also watch closely to how she reacts - if she gets mad and pouts, it probably was a$$ wiggling. If she is nice about it, then maybe she meant it, and she should be OK with doing something else. It sounds to me like she just got bit by the jealous bug!
