BH- I can understand and appreciate that you are wanting to help others by making sure that they put their efforts into a realistic perspective. But IMHO, taking the tack of approaching a newbie with the idea of informing them about the "reality of what they're dealing with" and the "odds" against their success is tremendously destructive to their morale at a time when they haven't even had a chance to begin to recover from having been kicked in the teeth and punched in the gut by their sitch.
I can only speak from my own experience when I say that, when I was a newbie and I had someone hit me on my thread with that particular reality (as a first response to my post!) before I was anywhere near ready to confront that reality for myself, that I almost threw in the towel with the attitude of, "Well, my W doesn't think much of me and this guy says I have less than no chance. He's been here an awfully long time, he must know what he's talking about. I guess it's over. Why bother hanging out here and reading a bunch of depressing sob stories?"
It's pretty hard when the wounds are fresh to overcome your own doubts about yourself and whether or not you can make your sitch better. Even harder when someone "confirms" them for you.
I was on a very precarious perch at a particularly vulnerable time. It was almost enough to make me throw up my hands, leave, and never come back. Had I given in and done that, I am convinced that I would not be in anywhere near as good a shape physically, mentally, or emotionally as I am now because of the support I have received from this community.
I didn't need to hear that particular piece of information at that time- it was damaging to me. It dissuaded me from reading other people's sitches for the longest time and learning from them at my own pace.
Again IMHO, that is what a newbie needs. To confront that particular reality at their own pace- not having someone (how ever well-intentioned) telling them this point blank.
And anyone who has been here long enough to not be considered a newbie will have put in enough effort on their own (if they really care about trying to improve their lot) in reading the threads and talking with people to come to their own conclusions, at their own pace, about that particular reality.
Heck, for all we know, there may be people out there who might CHOOSE to be ignorant of the odds against them, just because they know themselves well enough to know that they might cave at the very start if they had to confront the odds against them!
So, if the newbie doesn't need to hear it, and the veteran has, one way or another, already worked it out for themselves......
Why is it necessary to blatantly point it out for anyone?
PATIENCE AND FORTITUDE CONQUER ALL THINGS. -Ralph Waldo Emerson
DBing and MLC take their toll....Please provide exact CHANGE. -Jimbo