I'm intruiged. Assuming you don't know my b-day, what would your three guesses for me be?
And the probability is not actually 25%. I'd have to pull out my probability and statistics book to figure it out, but I remember that it was a bit more complicated than just number of tries divided by number of possible answers.
Meh, you're not really going to make me do this at this hour, are you?
Probability of getting it wrong thrice (pretending the "right" guess is a red marble and the "wrong" guesses are black marbles, drawn from box one after the other without putting them back in (dependent event)
Probability of drawing three "black" marbles in a row (getting it wrong thrice):
