cac,
You seem to be a little hung up on the whole boundary v. threat thing...I think this type of thinking can be lethal to a relationship, as it promotes a Do Nothing approach, since you *can't* enforce a boundary and you *won't* dole out a threat, kwim?

One of the things that I told my H a long while back was that I would get two twins for our bedroom and the queen would be gawn one day when he came home. Yeah it was a threat. Or a boundary. Whatever. The point was, then, that although I LOVED my life with him and I loved him, I would no longer participate in any kind of sham or show that we shared a bed for any other reason than snoozin.
The cruddy part was that I said this in anger which no doubt tainted the whole comment and shoved it firmly to the threat side of the fence but I relate this example to say that there are alternatives to divorce other than sitting around miserable and pessimistic. One could also set up a guest bedroom for themselves. Sure, it stays within the letter of the law and not the spirit of the law, so to speak, but it also knocks a reluctant spouse off center and allows for a little more motivation on their part. Something about knowing "they aint going anywhere..." absolutely demotivates a person, even if they are the nicest most motivated spouse in their hearts. Another way is to take away the Loving Spouse part of the picture. Continue to provide, be a good dad, contribute to household maintenance, etc, but be conspicuously absent on Valentine's day, anniversaries, and so forth. Do this with a kind attitude, no vengeance.
Turning the marital tides is pretty drastic stuff and so it requires pretty drastic measures, if you ask me. Just be prepared for her to lay down a few boundaries of her own!

However, your wife doesn't seem all that unmotivated so that's why I'm unsure as to why you are getting so deeply involved in this to begin with..? While I agree with you that past behavior is an accurate predictor, it is also true that people change quite often and so their future behavior will have to be predicted on new terms.