Wow. That is a tough one. It sounds so trite to say this to you but here goes; will confronting him take you closer to or further from your goals? yet that is all I can think of at the moment.
Mainly because this is something I ask myself on a regular basis.
It does appear to be foul play, yet you don't know for sure and if you ask you run a 50/50 chance of hearing the truth versus a lie.